[SMM Cobalt and Lithium Morning Meeting Summary] The iron phosphate market was stable this week, with loose supply and stable quotes

Lithium Ore:

This week, lithium ore prices rose slightly WoW, primarily due to the sideways movement of lithium carbonate prices. This week, lithium carbonate futures prices increased notably WoW, providing certain hedging profit opportunities for lithium chemical plants and traders, thereby pushing up the lithium ore prices accepted by buyers. Market prices followed suit. Currently, with lithium chemicals and lithium ore prices fluctuating rangebound, inquiry and purchasing activities on the demand side have been relatively active, better than the previous period. However, wait-and-see sentiment has intensified, posing significant downward resistance to lithium ore prices in the short term.

Lithium Carbonate:

This week, the domestic spot lithium carbonate market continued its upward trend, with the price center continuously rising. Despite the mild price increase, spot trade activity remained low, reflecting insufficient restocking willingness among downstream material plants and relatively cautious procurement strategies.
From a market driver perspective, the rigid demand from some downstream enterprises supported prices. Coupled with the expected improvement in production schedules for the new energy industry chain in July, market sentiment recovered. However, supply-side pressures persisted, with lithium carbonate production remaining high and industry inventories in a loose state, limiting upside room for prices. Meanwhile, the futures market exhibited an irrational rebound, deviating somewhat from spot fundamentals, necessitating vigilance against short-term capital-induced volatility risks.
Looking ahead, lithium carbonate prices may maintain a low-level fluctuation pattern. Whether the upward trend can continue depends on the actual recovery of demand. Conversely, if demand recovery falls short of expectations, prices may face renewed downward pressure.

Lithium Hydroxide:

This week, the decline in lithium hydroxide prices slowed significantly WoW. In terms of production, some enterprises experienced a certain increase in monthly output due to capacity ramp-up. Market sentiment-wise, downstream demand growth remained limited, with long-term agreements and customer-supplied materials meeting basic production needs, resulting in fewer additional spot order purchases. Affected by the current recovery in lithium ore prices, upstream cost support strengthened, and spot order quotations rose slightly, pushing down the price decline. It is expected that in the short term, due to the upward pull of lithium carbonate and lithium ore prices, the downside room for lithium hydroxide will be limited.

Refined Cobalt:

This week, refined cobalt prices fell slightly. On the supply side, refined cobalt smelters maintained long-term contract supplies, with fewer spot order quotations. Ex-factory prices remained unchanged due to production cost influences. The domestic futures market saw price declines due to market news disruptions, with traders' quotations and transaction prices following suit. On the demand side, due to the still high social inventory of refined cobalt and weakened downstream demand under high temperatures, most downstream producers maintained just-in-time procurement rhythms, with actual transactions remaining sluggish. It is expected that in the short term, refined cobalt prices will maintain a fluctuation pattern, with subsequent price trends needing close attention to cost increases and social inventory digestion.

Intermediate Products:

This week, spot prices of cobalt intermediate products continued to rise. Early in the week, some transactions occurred near 12.3. However, as cobalt salt prices rose, some enterprises reported that purchase quotations near 12.3-12.4 could not be closed. On the supply side, most enterprises maintained a bullish outlook and suspended quotations, while a few further raised their quotations. On the demand side, smelters faced challenges such as production cost losses and weak downstream demand. Under uncertain future conditions, most enterprises focused on consuming their own inventories. Some smelters with lower inventories inquired about prices in the market, but due to their quotations still being lower than sellers', market transactions remained few. Overall, affected by the DRC's extension policy, China's cobalt intermediate products will still face raw material shortages in the future, with prices having upward momentum. However, attention needs to be paid to the inhibition of downstream demand caused by rising raw material prices during this process.

Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride):

This week, cobalt sulphate prices rose slightly, with market transaction prices increasing to 49,000-52,000 yuan/mt. Many enterprises reported transactions near 50,000 yuan/mt, with some large enterprises also having a certain volume of transactions near 52,000 yuan/mt. On the supply side, enterprises currently maintained a bullish sentiment, with smelters gradually raising quotations for new goods in hand, and some traders also raising prices for old goods. On the demand side, downstream demand showed differentiation. Ternary orders still saw no significant improvement, with enterprises choosing to wait and see the market and digest previous inventories. Co3O4 and traditional chemical enterprises had relatively better prices, with some enterprises making purchases in the market. Refined cobalt purchases remained suspended due to poor economics. Overall, inquiry willingness in the market improved this week, with actual transactions also increasing compared to previous weeks. It is expected that under the influence of continuously rising raw material costs, cobalt sulphate prices may continue to maintain a strong trend next week.

Currently, cobalt chloride enterprises quoted prices at 61,000-63,000 yuan/mt, with market transaction volumes increasing compared to before. On the supply side, smelters still had a relatively heavy wait-and-see sentiment, with few market transactions. On the demand side, downstream enterprises had relatively sufficient inventory levels, with active market inquiries but still cautious about buying and selling. In terms of prices, the current actual transaction price was around 62,000 yuan/mt, with a few transactions at 63,000 yuan/mt. It is expected that in the short term, cobalt chloride prices will still stabilize within the 61,000-63,000 yuan/mt price range.

Cobalt Salts (Co3O4):

Currently, Co3O4 enterprises quoted prices at 200,000-220,000 yuan/mt, with some enterprises beginning to suspend quotations. Both upstream and downstream held wait-and-see attitudes, with few actual transactions, mostly being long-term contract deliveries. In terms of supply, Co3O4 plants chose to wait and see the overall market sentiment and demand situation, with only a small amount of goods shipped. In terms of demand, LCO cathode plants had relatively low inventories, but due to the recent overall market sentiment influence, they chose to wait and see. In terms of prices, Co3O4 plants currently indicated that shipping expectations were between 210,000-230,000 yuan/mt, but actual transactions of high-priced Co3O4 were still few. In the long term, Co3O4 prices were still affected by cobalt inventories. Whether current industry inventories could support until December became a key factor affecting price trends.

Nickel Sulphate:

As of Thursday this week, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 27,227 yuan/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate being 27,200-27,640 yuan/mt, and the average price rising slightly WoW. From the demand side, downstream precursor plant nickel sulphate inventories were relatively sufficient. This week, some manufacturers restocked, but overall market inquiry and transaction sentiments were weak. Due to weak demand, precursor plants' price acceptance of nickel sulphate did not significantly improve. From the supply side, overall upstream shipping sentiments also remained weak. Some nickel salt plants planned to cut production or suspend operations due to weak order demand. In addition, some nickel salt plants had low finished product inventories, leading to slightly higher quotations. Looking ahead, given the continued sluggish downstream demand and weak upstream shipping sentiments, nickel salt prices are expected to remain stable in the short term.

Ternary Cathode Precursor:

This week, ternary cathode precursor prices rose slightly. In terms of raw material costs, cobalt sulphate and manganese sulphate prices remained temporarily stable, while cobalt sulphate prices increased, driving up the absolute price of precursors. Currently, there was no significant adjustment in spot order discount coefficients. Downstream battery cell manufacturers still held the bargaining power for discount coefficients, with a weak response to cobalt sulphate price increases. Overall discount strategies remained stable, and it is expected that long-term contract discounts will not change significantly in the short term. In terms of demand, domestic NEV market demand for 6-series products increased, with overseas market demand for 8-series products also showing slight growth. However, overall orders were mainly concentrated among top-tier manufacturers. The consumer market continued to be sluggish. In terms of supply, due to staged restocking in July, overall production schedules were expected to increase slightly. However, against the backdrop of weak terminal demand, ternary cathode precursor prices lacked long-term upward support.

Ternary Cathode Material:

This week, prices of 5-series, 6-series, and 8-series ternary cathode materials all showed slight upward trends. In terms of raw material costs, nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices remained relatively stable, while cobalt sulphate and lithium carbonate prices increased significantly. Lithium hydroxide prices showed a slight continuous decline. Demand-side performance was differentiated. Domestic NEV market demand for 6-series products was relatively concentrated, with orders mainly flowing to top-tier manufacturers. Recent terminal automobile sales were relatively sluggish, with material-side production mainly maintaining original long-term contract supplies. In the overseas NEV market, affected by the upcoming cancellation of electric vehicle tax credit policies, a wave of sales stimulation may occur in the short term. However, in the long term, the demand prospects for ternary power batteries in the US market are concerning, possibly causing certain impacts on some domestic cathode material suppliers. Against the backdrop of current weak terminal demand and intensified market fluctuations, optimizing customer structure has become a key strategy for cathode material manufacturers to safeguard market share. In terms of supply, driven by slight market restocking in July, production is expected to increase. However, the ternary cathode material market has been in a state of supply surplus for a long time, with limited long-term growth space expected.

LFP:

This week, LFP prices continued to rise from last week, with an overall increase of about 325 yuan/mt, mainly due to the continuous rise in lithium carbonate prices this week, which increased by about 1,350 yuan/mt. There were no significant changes in the market this week. Material plant production was generally stable, with top-tier enterprises maintaining relatively stable production rhythms and some even having increases. Production rhythms of small and medium-sized plants slowed down somewhat due to order influences. From the perspective of downstream demand breakdown, power battery orders are expected to start decreasing this month, while ESS demand performed well, driving overall demand growth, but the growth was limited. Recently, a battery cell manufacturer began tendering, with the overall tendering progress relatively smooth. Based on currently available information, it is expected that the price war will intensify in H2. Overall, the recent LFP market mainly revolves around tendering as the main topic of discussion, with demand being mediocre and the market relatively stable.

Iron Phosphate:

This week, the iron phosphate market performed steadily. Some enterprises continued maintenance and new capacity ramp-up, slightly affecting available production capacity, but overall market supply remained loose. Recently, most enterprises' quotations did not show significant decreases. In terms of cost side, industrial-grade MAP and phosphoric acid prices remained stable, with ferrous sulphate prices maintaining high levels. Affected by summer high temperatures, the price of auxiliary material hydrogen peroxide rose slightly, having a certain impact on iron phosphate costs.

LCO:

Recently, LCO prices increased significantly due to cost changes in raw materials: battery-grade lithium carbonate prices continued to rise, and Co3O4 prices showed strong upward sentiment due to DRC policies. In terms of supply, Co3O4 enterprises quoted high shipping prices, with LCO cathode plants having low purchase willingness for high-priced Co3O4. In terms of demand, terminal demand entered the off-season, with decreased demand for LCO. Overall, LCO prices will increase significantly with the rise in Co3O4 and lithium carbonate prices.

Anode:

This week, prices of artificial graphite anode materials stabilized. On the demand side, small ESS market demand warmed up slightly, offsetting the demand gap caused by the slowdown in NEV market production speed to a certain extent, with relatively stable demand-side performance. The supply side still appeared abundant. In terms of cost side, anode raw material costs stopped falling and rebounded, providing effective support for artificial graphite prices. Under the interplay of multiple factors, prices of artificial graphite anode materials became stagnant this week. Looking ahead, despite the difficulty in reversing the overcapacity situation in the short term, related raw material prices are expected to continue stabilizing, providing support for anode material prices to remain stable in the short term.
This week, the price of natural graphite anode material maintained a stable trend, primarily supported by coordinated supply-demand dynamics and cost-side factors. Accelerated technological innovation in artificial graphite anode materials, coupled with gradual capacity expansion from vapor-deposited silicon-carbon producers, prompted downstream clients to shift procurement preferences toward alternative materials due to dual demands for cost reduction and performance upgrades—a shift that may compress market demand for natural graphite anodes. Considering supply-demand patterns and technological iterations, natural graphite anode material prices are expected to face sustained downward pressure.

Separator:

This week, separator market prices remained generally stable. Detailed breakdown: Wet-process separator mainstream quotations: 5μm at 1.35 yuan/m², 7μm at 0.76 yuan/m², and 9μm at 0.74 yuan/m². Dry-process separator mainstream quotations: 12μm at 0.45 yuan/m² and 16μm at 0.44 yuan/m². Supply-side capacity releases faced extended lead times, with accumulated inventory yet to be fully absorbed, perpetuating a supply surplus. Demand-side dynamics showed structural divergence: weaker-than-expected power battery demand contrasted with stronger-than-anticipated ESS demand, resulting in a slight MoM increase in overall industry demand. Given current supply-demand equilibrium, separator prices are expected to remain stable with limited fluctuations in the near term.

Electrolyte

: This week, electrolyte prices declined. Cost-side pressures eased as LiPF6 prices fell, while solvent and additive prices held steady, reducing overall production costs. Demand-side, power battery demand contracted slightly MoM due to inventory destocking and weakened automaker production sentiment. Meanwhile, overseas ESS demand showed growth momentum, contributing to a minor aggregate demand increase. Supply-side, electrolyte producers continued adopting "produce-based-on-sales" strategies. Despite persistent market lethargy and structural overcapacity, many firms remained willing to adopt volume discount tactics. Multifactor analysis suggests electrolyte prices will fluctuate rangebound.

Sodium-ion battery:

This week, the sodium-ion battery market improved, with NFPP remaining the dominant cathode material amid robust order demand and continuous price declines. Layered oxide shipments dropped significantly YoY. Despite low-price sales, cost compression reached practical limits, stabilizing layered oxide sodium-ion cell prices. As sodium-ion capacity gradually releases, production line defects emerged as a recycling focus. Market advancement hinges on demand-cost balance, with segmented performance divergence highlighting emerging industry challenges.

Recycling:

This week, cobalt sulphate and lithium carbonate prices rose, while nickel sulphate prices oscillated without sustained demand support. Nickel-cobalt-lithium coefficients for ternary and LCO black mass increased slightly. Current lithium prices for LFP pole piece black mass stand at 2,150-2,300 yuan/mtu and 1,950-2,150 yuan/mtu for LFP battery black mass. For ternary black mass: nickel-cobalt coefficients for ternary pole piece black mass reached 72-74%, with lithium coefficients at 68-70%; ternary battery black mass coefficients reached 70-72% for nickel-cobalt, with prices basically flat WoW. Ternary wet-process demand remained stable as most plants depleted inventory, adopting cautious procurement due to bearish lithium chemical price expectations. LFP wet-process demand saw semi-paralyzed operations, limited to toll processing without external purchases. Suppliers relaxed price expectations amid falling lithium salt prices, though transactions remained sluggish. Cost-side, most wet-process players operated below profitability thresholds, particularly LFP wet-process firms impacted by lithium price declines. Grinding mills marginally outperformed wet-process segments, though some SMEs faced losses.

Downstream & Terminal:

This week, DC-side battery cabin prices slightly declined. Average prices: 5MWh DC-side battery cabins at 0.427 yuan/Wh; 3.44/3.77MWh units at 0.437 yuan/Wh. Post-May demand surged due to China's H2 2025 energy storage subsidies (Documents 394/650) in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, which incentivized grid-side ESS participation in power market reforms. Accelerated cell shipments and component cost reductions drove sustained price declines. SMM forecasts continued gradual price reductions.

On July 7, the EPC tender result for Dapu Xianeng's 200MW/400MWh standalone ESS demonstration project was announced. Located in Meizhou, Guangdong, the 36.14-acre facility will use LFP batteries with outdoor prefabricated cabin layouts for battery systems and power conversion. The winning bid of 339.948 million yuan translates to 0.85 yuan/Wh.

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News:    

[China's power and other battery exports reach 127.3GWh in H1 2025, up 56.8% YoY] China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance released June 2025 data: 24.4GWh exported (+27.9% MoM, +22.5% YoY), accounting for 18.5% of monthly sales. Power batteries constituted 15.8GWh (65.0%, +17.1% MoM, +16.6% YoY); other batteries at 8.5GWh (35.0%, +54.7% MoM, +35.2% YoY). H1 2025 cumulative exports reached 127.3GWh (+56.8% YoY), with power batteries at 81.6GWh (64.1%, +26.5% YoY) and other batteries at 45.6GWh (35.9%, +174.6% YoY).
[China Automobile Dealers Association (CADA): June Auto Dealer Inventory Coefficient Reaches 1.42, Up 1.4% YoY] CADA announced on July 10 the "Auto Dealer Inventory" survey results for June 2025: the comprehensive inventory coefficient for auto dealers in June stood at 1.42, rising 2.9% MoM and 1.4% YoY. Inventory levels remained below the warning line but exceeded the reasonable range. Based on statistics from the Passenger Vehicle Branch of CADA, terminal passenger vehicle sales reached approximately 2.084 million units in June, translating to an estimated total inventory of around 2.95 million units at month-end dealerships. (Finance News)Z71/> [CAAM: Domestic NEV Sales Account for 48.6% of Total Domestic Auto Sales in June] CAAM data shows June domestic NEV sales accounted for 48.6% of total domestic auto sales; domestic passenger NEV sales represented 51.8% of total passenger vehicle domestic sales; domestic commercial NEV sales constituted 25.2% of total commercial vehicle domestic sales. From January to June, domestic NEV sales accounted for 46.8% of total domestic auto sales; domestic passenger NEV sales represented 50.4% of total passenger vehicle domestic sales; domestic commercial NEV sales constituted 21.8% of total commercial vehicle domestic sales.

SMM New Energy Research Team

Cong Wang 021-51666838

Rui Ma 021-51595780

Ziya Lin 86-2151666902

Disheng Feng 021-51666714

Yanlin Lyu 021-20707875

Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711

Zihan Wang 021-51666914

Jie Wang 021-51595902

He Zhang 021-20707850

Haohan Zhang 021-51666752

Bolin Chen 021-51666836Z84/>Mengqi Xu 021-20707868